科技成果产业化目标市场评估与选择模型研究

在分析国内外目标市场评估与选择理论研究现状及其存在问题的基础上,构建了基于系统动力学(SD)的目标市场评估与选择过程控制模型;明确了科技成果产业化目标市场评估系统边界,并采用战略环境评估方法,从宏观环境支持程度、产业环境威胁力及内部资源条件满足程度等方面识别出24个营销绩效影响因素,形成了SD模型的基准变量;然后构建了科技成果产业化目标市场发展提升过程因果关系图、流图、量化分析方程,形成了SD系统结构模型,刻画出影响因素与科技成果产业化营销绩效的动态反馈规律;最后结合某高分子材料类科技成果产业化实际,对其目标市场评估SD模型进行了vensim软件模拟,并基于目标市场发展水平及稳定性模拟结果,提出了科技成果产业化目标市场选择方案,为高等院校和科研院所科技成果产业化目标市场评估与选择提供借鉴。     

模糊多维偏好群决策的BOT项目风险管理研究

运用模糊的语言变量进行多属性事物的群体评价决策,即模糊信息多维偏好群决策。由于BOT项目的风险结构十分复杂,如何对BOT项目风险进行有效的分级管理显得十分重要。系统地分析了BOT全生命周期风险的内容与属性,运用模糊决策理论和多维线性规划模型,结合改进的Borda分值法,构建了BOT项目生命周期的模糊信息多维偏好线性规划风险评价模型。模型中既考虑了决策者意见的一致性,又兼顾了决策意见的差异性,为BOT项目风险管理和评价提供了新的思路。     

高速公路工程集成管理的关键理论及方法

针对高速公路工程的特点,提出了高速公路工程集成管理模式。重点介绍了实现集成管理的三项关键理论及方法:通过项目分解结构技术进行项目系统分析;运用工程全寿命周期设计的理论和方法实现全部工程要素的全寿命周期集成;应用全寿命周期费用矩阵分析模型实现工程费用集成管理。上述成果已应用于某高速公路扩建工程实践。     

新经济环境下工程设计行业的定位及功能分析

通过对我国工程设计行业的定位进行分析,提出了工程设计行业的十大特性及六大社会功能,以期提高各部门对工程设计行业在区域经济发展中地位的再认识,使工程设计行业在新的经济环境下得到快速发展。     

Out of sight but not out of mind: Why failure to account for left truncation biases research on failure rates

We note at least three major issues in entrepreneurship theory that can be clarified by studying the survival chances of new ventures: the extent to which entrepreneurs are so constrained by initial founding conditions that they are unable to learn; the degree to which heterogeneity and innovative capabilities are lost due to the failure of new ventures; and the imprinting effects of new ventures' early days on their subsequent development. However, previous research on these issues has been inconclusive because of problems in research design and data analysis. In this paper, we shed light on new venture failure rates by assessing the validity and generalizability of previous findings. We argue that research using registration data to study new ventures is very likely to generate biased results and that research attempting to track new ventures from a very early stage can still suffer from selection bias due to left truncation. Using a sample of new ventures from the Panel Study of Entrepreneurial Dynamics II, we provide evidence for the extent of such biases. We offer a statistical solution to left truncation that can be easily applied in widely used statistical programs.     

Commentary on “Resource use and development across permeable project boundaries in open network contexts”

The purpose of this commentary is to analyze the paper “Resource use and development across permeable project boundaries in open network contexts”. Focus lies on commenting on the value of the paper in light of existing research on business networks. The paper is analyzed from a general, theoretical and empirical perspective. The conclusion of the commentary is that there are important contributions of the paper. It clearly adds to our understanding of resource use and development in business networks as it introduces a context involving several actors in a system of open innovation.     

Understanding resource investments

The Millennium Boom of 2003–2011 made the resources industry highly profitable and led to a surge in new projects around the world. This had major implications for the Australian economy: Resource investment accounted for almost half of all business investment at the peak and the buoyancy of the sector helped Australia to avoid the worst of the global financial crisis. Using the event-study approach, this article examines the wealth-creating effects of new resource projects at the individual company level. The results indicate substantial increases in shareholder returns occur around the time of announcements of government approval for projects, the finalization of feasibility studies and changes in the status of projects such as when a company decides to finally commit to invest in a project. Government approval is the most important milestone in the life cycle of a project, where abnormal returns around 4% are realized on announcement day.     

规则约束下科技创意方案评估研究

在“大众创业,万众创新”的时代背景下,各类众创空间快速发展,及时把握与评估科技创意方案水平已成为一项重要工作。在分析科技创意方案影响因素的基础上,从创新性、价值性、可行性3个维度设计了科技创意方案评估指标体系,构建了基于规则的科技创意方案评估模型,并进行了实证研究。最后,提出了相关优化策略。     

科技计划项目评审中项目与专家精准匹配的技术实现

针对科技计划项目评审中项目与专家匹配效率低、效果差的情况,提出构建包含向量空间模型与协同过滤模型的专家智能匹配模型。在提取评审项目组与专家信息特征的基础上,通过向量空间模型产生专家匹配列表,并通过协同过滤模型对匹配列表进行调整优化,从而得到项目与专家匹配结果。以广东省科技计划项目数据为例,开展实验并对模型进行验证,实验结果准确率达97.6%,匹配效果良好。     

国家科技重大专项财政支持效率评价

在相关文献的基础上,选取财政支持效率评价作为突破口,研究了我国科技重大专项管理路径。分析重大专项财政投入现状发现,资金使用情况良好,支出结构基本合理,多元化投入机制逐渐建立,管理制度基本建立。同时,通过DEA和Malmquist模型评估了决策单元的综合效率值和动态效率值,结果表明,财政支持重大专项发展过程中的资源配置效率并没有实现最优。但是,通过技术创新、资源配置、规模效率等途径优化重大专项管理的效果已初步显现。效率较为低下的表象为科研活动价值补偿不足,制约因素包括：事权缺乏清晰界定且事权与支出责任不匹配、组织管理体制有待完善、实施模式缺乏清晰判断。最后,提出了建议,包括不断完善重大专项财政投入及其管理、匹配科技重大专项事权与支出责任、健全重大专项实施机制、优化管理架构。